Cross-country comparison over absolute dates⮸
Daily Dead (7-Day Average)⮸
Cross-country comparison with approximately aligned start days⮸
Daily Dead (7-Day Average)⮸
Per-country analysis with exponential and sigmoidal projections, and new cases analysis⮸
IMPORTANT: The projections are only accurate if the fit is good (it often isn't), and assuming nothing changes
going forward. The sigmoid is omitted if a reasonable fit can't be computed, but this still doesn't mean that
the fit is good if it is shown.
The dashed lines show best fit projections from a few previous days for comparison.
Start date 2020-03-14 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $35,306$ on 2020-05-21
Best fit exponential: \(2.89 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.017t}\) (doubling rate \(17.8\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{34,355.9}{1 + 10^{-0.061 (t - 41.2)}}\) (asimptote \(34,355.9\))
Start date 2020-03-14 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $2,939$ on 2020-05-21
Best fit exponential: \(65.6 \times 10^{0.025t}\) (doubling rate \(12.1\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{4,182.3}{1 + 10^{-0.042 (t - 58.9)}}\) (asimptote \(4,182.3\))
Start date 2020-03-14 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $28,810$ on 2020-05-21
Start date 2020-03-14 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $108,769$ on 2020-05-21
Best fit exponential: \(1.99 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.026t}\) (doubling rate \(11.7\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{149,646.3}{1 + 10^{-0.042 (t - 60.0)}}\) (asimptote \(149,646.3\))
Start date 2020-03-21 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $3,148$ on 2020-05-21
Best fit exponential: \(77.8 \times 10^{0.026t}\) (doubling rate \(11.4\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{4,514.2}{1 + 10^{-0.042 (t - 54.2)}}\) (asimptote \(4,514.2\))
Start date 2020-03-14 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $62,034$ on 2020-05-21
Start date 2020-03-17 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $310,087$ on 2020-05-21
Best fit exponential: \(4.54 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.028t}\) (doubling rate \(10.8\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{850,615.0}{1 + 10^{-0.034 (t - 73.6)}}\) (asimptote \(850,615.0\))
Start date 2020-03-22 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $20,047$ on 2020-05-21
Best fit exponential: \(437 \times 10^{0.028t}\) (doubling rate \(10.9\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{35,536.3}{1 + 10^{-0.039 (t - 58.7)}}\) (asimptote \(35,536.3\))
Start date 2020-03-17 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $164,080$ on 2020-05-21
Start date 2020-03-11 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $57,581$ on 2020-05-21
Best fit exponential: \(897 \times 10^{0.025t}\) (doubling rate \(12.1\) days)
Start date 2020-03-23 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $589$ on 2020-05-21
Best fit exponential: \(29.3 \times 10^{0.021t}\) (doubling rate \(14.1\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{1,362.0}{1 + 10^{-0.026 (t - 67.2)}}\) (asimptote \(1,362.0\))
Start date 2020-03-11 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $33,000$ on 2020-05-21
Start date 2020-03-18 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $5,187$ on 2020-05-21
Best fit exponential: \(57.9 \times 10^{0.030t}\) (doubling rate \(10.0\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{15,256.4}{1 + 10^{-0.036 (t - 73.1)}}\) (asimptote \(15,256.4\))
Start date 2020-03-30 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $215$ on 2020-05-21
Best fit exponential: \(9.84 \times 10^{0.025t}\) (doubling rate \(11.9\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{706.3}{1 + 10^{-0.030 (t - 65.4)}}\) (asimptote \(706.3\))
Start date 2020-03-18 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $4,411$ on 2020-05-21
Start date 2020-03-16 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $18,330$ on 2020-05-21
Best fit exponential: \(596 \times 10^{0.022t}\) (doubling rate \(13.4\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{51,495.6}{1 + 10^{-0.027 (t - 76.4)}}\) (asimptote \(51,495.6\))
Start date 2020-03-26 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $652$ on 2020-05-21
Best fit exponential: \(52 \times 10^{0.020t}\) (doubling rate \(15.1\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{829.2}{1 + 10^{-0.036 (t - 42.9)}}\) (asimptote \(829.2\))
Start date 2020-03-16 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $13,247$ on 2020-05-21
Start date 2020-03-16 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $9,931$ on 2020-05-21
Best fit exponential: \(622 \times 10^{0.018t}\) (doubling rate \(16.9\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{22,061.4}{1 + 10^{-0.023 (t - 73.3)}}\) (asimptote \(22,061.4\))
Start date 2020-03-24 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $416$ on 2020-05-21
Best fit exponential: \(43.4 \times 10^{0.017t}\) (doubling rate \(17.4\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{496.4}{1 + 10^{-0.034 (t - 40.8)}}\) (asimptote \(496.4\))
Start date 2020-03-16 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $6,483$ on 2020-05-21
Start date 2020-03-13 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $749$ on 2020-05-21
Best fit exponential: \(216 \times 10^{0.009t}\) (doubling rate \(34.6\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{722.1}{1 + 10^{-0.039 (t - 23.3)}}\) (asimptote \(722.1\))
Start date 2020-03-28 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $20$ on 2020-05-21
Best fit exponential: \(5.2 \times 10^{0.012t}\) (doubling rate \(25.1\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{20.8}{1 + 10^{-0.042 (t - 22.4)}}\) (asimptote \(20.8\))
Start date 2020-03-13 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $135$ on 2020-05-21
